July 08    August 08    September 08    October 08    November 08    December 08

Warning :

Seasonal forecasting may be interpreted as a joke or as dictum used in the past. As a matter of fact, the work of the world major weather forecasting companies is constantly based upon these very same seasonal approaches, so as to acquire the most reliability in day to day forecasting. Well-known companies such as NOAA in the United States or Météo France in our country base their work upon longer term seasonal data, that is to say the on-coming months. Such forecasts may help farmers to prepare weeks beforehand for pluviometric deficits or to heavy rainfalls, depending on the forecasts.

There are not so many available models on the Internet but there are some. “La météo dans tous ses états” (name of this site, created by Frédéric Decker, which could be translated as “the natural and scientific states of weather”) was the first French site to provide the public with seasonal forecasting. Critics were made, negative as positive. Positive commentaries getting more and more important, I have chosen to improve the presentation of these probability forecasts. These forecasting models do not provide space for the big systems (anticyclones, depressions) but calculate a probable barometric deviation based upon the data from the preceding months and years (climatology), as well as the last observations and the oceanic data which are determining within the dynamic of fluids. These seasonal data are reliable up to 65% and are still experimental. Would you please then understand them with caution and indulgence… Here is a short review about the weather conditions forecasted for the oncoming months. These forecasts have been based upon the models coming from: NOAA, Météo-France, Meteorological Office, IRI, TWO, Langfristwetter.de, and Lothar Beckman.